Research
Foundational mental models, decision frameworks, and reference material behind the work. Some begin in operating practice; others organize the ideas I return to when a decision needs a wider frame.
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August 21, 2026
Institutions, Incentives, Emergence, and Prosperity
A practical framework for thinking about prosperity, institutional decline, money, debt, political economy, and social order without reducing complex outcomes to a single cause. Rules shape incentives; people adapt; their interactions create outcomes nobody fully controls; those outcomes reshape the rules.
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July 5, 2026
The Strategy Stack: An Integrated Operating System from the Great Strategists and Operators
The strategy canon — Porter, Christensen, Moore, Helmer, Ries & Trout, Dunford, Rumelt, Thiel, Grove, Kim & Mauborgne, Ben Thompson, plus the capital judgment of Munger, Buffett, Bezos, Hastings, Huang, and Jobs — organized into five interacting layers: the battle for the mind, the battle for economics, the battle with time, the craft of diagnosis, and the discipline of allocation. Where the frameworks reinforce each other, where they flatly contradict and how to adjudicate, a ten-step decision protocol with kill-gates, and six historical cases a single lens misses.
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July 3, 2026
SCM Planning Reference: The Math Behind an Inventory Loop
The research pass that calibrated an agentic inventory-planning loop, verified claim-by-claim by adversarial agents: safety stock formulas with service-level z-tables, periodic-review policy for a Mon+Thu cadence, China-lane lead-time variability and CNY buffers, transfer-vs-reorder decision rules, freight economics seeds, and a machine-readable config block. Companion to The Inventory Loop.